Introduction. To date, the Global measles and rubella strategic plan is in effect, with the goal of eliminating measles by 2020. However, Ukraine is in the list of 9 countries of the European Region of endemic measles and over the past 15 years, 80 % of cases of this disease were registered among Ukrainians. Thus, the study of the epidemiological characteristics of measles in certain regions of Ukraine in order to strengthen preventive measures on this disease is an actual scientific and practical task.
Purpose. The study was aimed to analysis the measles incidence and vaccination coverage against this disease in the Poltava region, as well as to prognosticate the epidemic trends in the region for the period until 2020.
Materials and Methods. A retrospective epidemiological analysis of data from official statistical reporting documents approved by the Ministry of Health of Ukraine for the period from 2012 to 2018 (6 months) was carried out to analysis the measles incidence. Forecasting the incidence of measles was carried out by the linear regression method using the construction of a polynomial trend line.
Results and Conclusions. Determined that measles incidence of the Poltava region during 2013-2016 registered at a low level (1.16 and 0.14 per 100 thousand population respectively), in 2015 and 2016 cases of the disease was not detected, whereas from 2017 and for the first 6 months of 2018 this indicator increased by 19.3 times − from 1.34 to 25.9 per 100 thousand population, the absolute number of reported cases of measles among children and adults increased by 13.6 and 24 times, respectively. The scope of vaccination against measles in the Poltava region for the period 2012–2016 has a tendency to decrease: among children aged 12 months − in 3.3, 6 and over 7 years − in 2.4 and 5.5 times, respectively. By 2020 a rapid measles incidence rate up to 50.0 per 100 thousand of population is expected in the region.
In order to reduce the risk of occurrence and spread of large epidemic outbreaks of measles in Ukraine, it is recommended to conduct additional immunization among epidemically significant age groups of the population, since preventive vaccinations are a priority task for the health care of Ukraine to overcome the risk of morbidity and mortality of the population from measles.
Keywords: measles, incidence, vaccination, prognosis.
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